A Pew Research Center survey published on 8 October found that 84 percent of registered voters said the economy was very important to their choice.
Fuel prices stay high
The average US gasoline price stood at $4.23 a gallon as of 29 October, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). A year earlier it was $3.04. Diesel was $6.33 a gallon, below its all-time high of $6.53 reached on 22 September.
The Energy and Clean Air Research Center (CREA) estimates that the conflict has added $468 billion to the global fuel bill across 169 countries. It puts $160 billion of that cost on the United States alone. The US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, and prices have stayed elevated since.
Inflation and jobs show strain
Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent month on month in September, taking annual inflation to 3.7 percent. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent on the year. Producer prices rose 1.3 percent monthly and 6.3 percent annually.
Hiring slowed. Non-farm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, and the Labor Department revised July and August down by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent. Initial jobless claims were 194,000 in the week ending 24 October.
Growth beats forecasts, sentiment sags
GDP grew at an annualised 3.4 percent in the third quarter, above market expectations. Consumer sentiment, however, was weak. The University of Michigan index read 48 in October, while short-term inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent and long-term expectations to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent.
Fed turns to hiking
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023, after cutting 75 basis points over the prior year. It held the target range at 3.75 to 4 percent at its most recent meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Americans had faced inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target for roughly six years.
Source: Federal Reserve · Pew Research Center | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
