Vietnam is set to overtake Indonesia on nominal GDP per capita this year, according to International Monetary Fund projections. The IMF puts Vietnam at US$5,269 per person in 2026, against US$5,153 for Indonesia. Vietnam’s economy is forecast to grow 8.4 percent, while Indonesia’s is seen expanding 5.1 percent.
Growth gap widens
The IMF expects Vietnam’s GDP per capita to rise 8.9 percent on last year’s estimate. Indonesia’s is projected to rise 1.5 percent on this year’s estimate. Its economy expanded 9.95 percent in the third quarter, and 9.01 percent in the first nine months of 2026, national statistics data show.
Industry and construction led the expansion. That sector grew 11.21 percent in January to September and accounted for 49.62 percent of value-added growth. Services rose 8.96 percent, contributing 45.03 percent. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 4.02 percent.
Investment and Production
Vietnam’s Industrial Production Index rose 12.3 percent in the first nine months. Growth was an estimated 14.8 percent in the third quarter alone. Foreign investment also climbed. Total registered foreign investment reached US$50.36 billion as of 30 September, up 76.4 percent year on year. Foreign direct investment realisation was an estimated US$21.07 billion, 12.1 percent higher.
Business formation was weaker. Some 223,900 new or resumed companies registered in January to September, down 3.2 percent. Exits totalled 172,000, down 1.7 percent. The IMF figures for Indonesia use an assumed exchange rate of Rp18,000 per US dollar.
Source: IMF
