The Vienna-based Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) has projected Hungary’s GDP growth at 1.7 percent in 2026, 2.6 percent in 2027 and 2.8 percent in 2028. The autumn forecast covers Central, Eastern and Southeastern European economies. Hungary’s growth slowed to 0.7 percent in 2024 and 0.5 percent in 2025.
Consumption leads the first year
wiiw expects growth in 2026 to be driven mainly by household consumption, which it puts at 4 percent in real terms. Real wages are forecast to rise 6 percent that year. Consumption growth then eases to 2 percent in both 2027 and 2028.
Industrial output is forecast to grow 3.5 percent in 2026, accelerating to 5.5 percent in 2027 and 6.5 percent in 2028. Manufacturing order books at the end of July were 46 percent higher than a year earlier.
Investment recovery depends on EU money
Gross fixed capital formation is expected to fall 1 percent in 2026, before rising 5 percent in 2027 and 10 percent in 2028. The investment slump follows a 2.8 percent drop in 2025, after an 8.6 percent rise in 2024.
The recovery is tied to EU funds. wiiw counts 6.4 billion euros in recovery fund grants, 3.5 billion euros in preferential loans and 6.4 billion euros in cohesion funds as available. Recovery funds can be drawn until the end of 2026, and cohesion funds until the end of 2030.
Labour market and regional comparison
wiiw forecasts unemployment at 4.4 percent in 2026, 4.3 percent in 2027 and 4.2 percent in 2028. The average monthly net wage is projected to rise from 525,810 forints to 580,380 forints by 2028.
For comparison, wiiw projects 2.2 percent growth in 2026 for the weighted average of 11 Central and Eastern EU member states, and 3.2 percent for six Western Balkan economies. The Ministry of Finance forecasts 2.4 percent growth for Hungary in 2027.
Related: Ukraine cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.1 percent · Hungary plans 1465 billion HUF spending cut for 2027
Source: Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw)
