US consumer sentiment weakened further in October, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary index falling to 48 points, a four-month low and marginally below September’s 48.1. The reading follows a mid-month preliminary figure of 46.3 for October. The index stands 10.4 percent below its year-earlier level.
Expectations and prices
The survey’s gauge of expectations for the next six months rose to 48.8 in October from 46.3 in September. Current conditions moved the other way, slipping to 46.7 from 50.9. Households now expect inflation of 4.7 percent over the coming year, up from 4.6 percent in September and well above the 3.4 percent recorded in February, before the start of the Iran war. Five-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent.
The University of Michigan surveys at least 500 people by telephone each month. Alongside the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, it is a principal gauge of expected consumption, which accounts for about 70 percent of US GDP.
Business activity cools
A reading above 50 still signals expansion, and 57.6 remains comfortably in that territory.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,663.43 points on 22 October, down 1.21 percent from the previous session, by MacroHerald’s own measurement as of 23 October 2026, 15:36 GMT.
Data: S&P Dow Jones Indices
