Brent crude futures rose above 114 dollars a barrel on Friday, reaching their highest level since May. The December contract was up 1.3 percent at 114.64 dollars in the morning, according to the Wall Street Journal. WTI rose 1.5 percent to 100.95 dollars.
The rally was driven by fears of renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. Iran has reportedly warned it would retaliate against airports, pipelines and economic infrastructure in the Gulf region if the US and Israel strike again. The US is reportedly working on further military options against Iran and moving a third carrier strike group and more Marines to the region.
Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure added to the pressure. Attackers struck the Sajba oil field and Dammam airport on Wednesday. The Saudi energy ministry said production at Sajba was not halted, but falling debris caused injuries.
Supply risk rather than physical shortage
ING says prices are being held high by the risk of supply disruption rather than an actual physical shortage. Gulf oil shipments are currently unimpeded. ING had previously forecast a fourth-quarter Brent average of about 80 dollars a barrel.
Kpler data show Middle East oil exports averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October. That compares with 23.3 million barrels a day before the conflict. Shipments are moving through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes.
Market data
By our own market data, Brent spot in Europe closed at 115.22 dollars a barrel on 20 October 2026, near its 31-day low.
Related: Brent tops $110 a barrel on Middle East risk and tight supply · Brent tops $112 as Saudi attacks and Hormuz tanker hits rattle supply
Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
