Vietnam’s economy expanded by 10.0 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, marking its strongest growth since the pandemic, as manufacturing, construction, and services all showed solid gains.
Growth driven by industry and construction
Manufacturing growth rose to 11.4 percent in Q3, compared with 10.8 percent in the previous quarter, contributing 2.8 percentage-points to overall GDP growth. Services expanded 9.5 percent during the quarter. Construction growth also jumped to 12.2 percent year-on-year from 8.9 percent in Q2.
The year-to-date expansion in GDP reached 8.9 percent, with quarterly gains above expectations. Bloomberg consensus had forecast 8.7 percent growth for Q3, while Q2 growth was revised up slightly from an initial 8.4 percent to 8.8 percent.
Inflation rises beyond target amid oil price pressure
September consumer price inflation rose to 5.1 percent, above the government’s average target of 4.5 percent. Commerzbank noted that elevated oil prices and rapid credit growth have limited the State Bank of Vietnam’s room for further monetary stimulus, creating challenges for maintaining price stability.
The report highlighted risks of rising demand-side price pressures as growth momentum remains strong heading into the fourth quarter. Upside inflation risks are elevated amid higher global oil prices related to the conflict in the Middle East.
Outlook and government targets
Meeting the government’s full-year GDP growth target of 10 percent would require a 12.5 percent expansion in the fourth quarter, according to Commerzbank Research. Nguyen Thu Oanh, head of the National Statistics Office, said capital flows into production, investment, and consumption may have a more evident impact in the final months of the year.
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Source: National Statistics Office
