Poland’s grey market in liquid fuels held steady at 4 percent of the market in 2025, unchanged from 2024, the energy regulator URE said in a new study. The regulator estimated the resulting loss to the state treasury at about 2.5 billion zloty, drawn from unpaid VAT, excise tax and the fuel fee on diesel consumption.
A smaller share than before
URE described the current level as not high. It pointed to the early 2000s, when the grey market in liquid fuels in Poland was estimated at 20-30 percent of the total. Four percent is far lower.
Still, the loss runs into billions. That money would otherwise flow to the state budget. URE’s study treats the figure as a persistent, if reduced, drain on public revenue.
Where the risk sits now
URE said it sees the greatest risk currently in maritime diesel imports, in the import and production of lubricants, and in LPG imports. These are the segments the regulator flagged as most exposed to grey-market activity going forward.
To address the gaps, URE proposed a set of legislative changes. These include licensing requirements for the production of lubricating oil and pyrolysis oil, tighter controls on fuel transit, and increased supervision of tax warehouses that produce fuels. The regulator also proposed a registration system for plastic fuel tanks used by end consumers, aimed at closing off another route the grey market has used.
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Source: URE
